Well, it’s been one full week of trying to get back into building my website. Although right now it’s just a collection of musings or ramblings on my usual go-to topics, I really do hope to expand out this website one day. Things like adding in-site Javascript code for games, posting more about philosophical topics, etc.
Anyways, tomorrow is the day of judgement for me, or for most other people, it’s just a regular old BMAB backgammon tournament. For my last minute preparations, I have researched my own version of a racing formula, used for short races, based on EPC. In fact, just as today is lucky day #7, EPC is based on 7s, the average roll of 2d6 without accounting for doubles, and in the formula I will be extending the definition of an N-roll position having an EPC of 7N+1 from rolls vs. rolls positions to pips vs. pips positions and pips vs. rolls positions. The formula, which assumes money game/neutral match score, roughly goes like this:
- For the leader, who is the player on roll and considering doubling, find the closest N, such that 7N+1 is within ±3 pips of the leader’s actual EPC. Another way of saying this is that the leader has approximately an N-roll position. Remember that to derive the EPC from an “nice” pips position, simply add 7 (lucky day #7 strikes again)!
- The borderline for offering an initial double occurs when the trailer has an EPC of N-5 more than the leader.
- The borderline for offering a redouble occurs when the trailer has an EPC of N-4 more than the leader.
- The take/pass borderline occurs when the trailer has an EPC of N-1 more than the leader. When the difference in EPC reaches N, the trailer had better pass!
- The above formula works specifically for pips vs pips positions. In pips vs rolls (or rolls vs pips) positions, the leader has a bigger advantage, since the extra wastage generated by the rolls position means less variance for the trailer to make a comeback. Here, the double/no double borderlines should be moved back one pip, to N-6 and N-5, and the take/pass borderline should be moved back two pips, to N-3.
Of course, this formula is far from perfect, and will certainly undergo revisions in the future, but any rough formula is better than none when there is so much on the line tomorrow. A grandmaster title is at stake here, depending on whether I can play an average PR of 3.27 or better!
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